Thanks for checking out how to bet football. I am Sean Green from the Sports Gambling Podcast and I’m here to explain, simply how to bet on football. I know what you’re thinking. Why should I listen to you, Sean Green? Well, since 2011 I’ve picked every NFL game against the spread. I’ve gotten a lot right and I’ve gotten a decent amount wrong. So I’m here to share with you my winning bedding strategies and also a couple of mistakes you may want to avoid if you’re new to betting football.
I’m going to walk you through the basics. The first is, what is the spread? Next to the team names you’ll see a number, in this case minus seven. And what does that mean? Well, it means the Browns have to win by seven or more for them to cover the spread.
Another way to bet on football is simply betting the money line. It’s the easiest bet to make in football, and it’s simply you’re betting on who’s gonna win the game. For instance, in this example, it’s -300 Cleveland, which means you have to bet $300 for the Cleveland brands to win and you’ll win $100 if they win the game. Let’s say you like the Jets for some reason. Well, if you bet $100 on the Jets right now and they win the game somehow, you’ll win $240.
The other main way to bet on football is with the total, the total is the total number of points they expect to be scored in the game. Now you’re either betting that total is going to go over or under. For instance, the Browns score 35 the Jets score 21 that’s 56 total points it’s going over. Let’s say the Browns score 20 the Jets score 17 that total is 37 and the under would hit.
The last way to bet on football is with prop bets. Prop bets are a bet about a specific outcome in the game. For instance, you think Odell Beckham Jr is gonna score touchdown in this game. You can bet that at -140 which means you’d have to bet $140 and if Odell Beckham scores a touchdown, you win $100.
Now that we got through the basics, let’s talk about some winning football betting strategies. First off in the NFL, you always want to fade the public. Anytime everyone’s saying, “Oh Hey, they can’t lose! They’re going to cover, they’re gonna destroy!” That’s the type of team you want to bet against. Why? Well, because when bookies, like MyBookie set the betting line they’re setting a number, they’re trying to get equal action on both sides of the bet.
So let’s say they open the line at (-7) but everyone’s betting the Cleveland Browns. Well, they may have to give the Jets some extra points to get people to bet on the Jets. It’s really hard to get people to bet on the Jets. So let’s say the move the line to eight points, nine points, ten points, whatever it takes to get equal money on both sides. So if you’re getting extra free points long term, that’s the side you want to be on.
The next money betting strategy we’re going to hit on is the spread is dead theory. I know you’re bummed out cause we just learned about the spread and it’s already dead, but it’s the truth! In 2018 NFL season, the spread only mattered 18% of the time. And what does that mean when you’re actually laying these bets? Well it means there’s not really a ton of value in betting the Cleveland Browns (-300) right? Because it means when the favorites win, they also cover the spread. And on the other side it’s not really that, it’s not really worth it to bet the Jets (+7) because if the Jets are going to cover, they’re also probably going to win. So you’re better off taking the Jets (+240).
Another winning betting strategy to hit on is taking the home team on Thursday night. Since 2014 up to the beginning of the 2019 season, the home team is covering 61% of the time. So if you’re looking for some action Thursday Night and are just blindly get a bet, take the home team.
A couple of mistakes you want to avoid when bedding on the National Football League. First off is don’t bet with your heart, right? You have a favorite team. You want them to win, unless it’s you know, let’s say the Eagles in Super Bowl 52, you want to avoid those situations where you factor in in your own biases because you’re blind to the team. You watch them all the time, you overlook a lot of their glaring flaws. So when in doubt, avoid betting on your team.
Another thing you’re going to want to avoid is betting on Kirk Cousins in primetime. I don’t know why he can’t win in primetime, but he just can’t and he has good numbers, but he just doesn’t deliver in prime time. So avoid betting on Kirk Cousins in prime time at all costs.
Another situation you’re going to want to avoid is betting on the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs. Andy Reed is a great coach, but he just can’t figure it out in the playoffs and when the team wins, they don’t cover the spread. So avoid betting on the Chiefs in the playoffs whenever possible.
Thanks again for watching “How To Bet Football!”