With the NBA season around the corner, we sit down with Teddy Covers, Hakeem Profit, and Kelly Stewart to go over NBA betting strategy and their personal Top 10 winning tips when handicapping basketball. Some of the topics covered in the latest episode in our Sports Betting Tips Video Series are:
1) Ride the hot & fade the cold. You want your money on good teams playing well and fading bottom feeders playing poorly. Even post-All-Star Break: Knicks 6-15 ATS LY and everyone knew they stunk
2) NBA stats that matter: Offensive & defensive efficiency: pp/100. Effective FG rate on O and D. Rebound rate % of available rebounds, turnover rate & of course pace for totals. The markets pay CLOSE attention which is why an OKC can make their backers so much $$ — stats were good, not great. Note that Homecourts mean LESS for the very good teams that win on the road.
3) ****Maximize the morphs. Role player gets hurt, the team goes 1-9 ATS next 10 w adjusted rotations; markets barely notice. Coach says he wants to run, team cashes Overs. The ebbs and flows of a normal season can be your moneymakers. This is my #1 betting tip and my #1 strategy for beating the NBA. Teams that are undervalued can stay that way for months; overvalued the same way.
4) Derivatives help modify the swings: First quarters, first halves, first to 10-15-20, player props. Derivative markets often move a notch or two slower than ‘regular’ point spread and totals markets. In-game betting great for NBA: ride the runs. Halftimes too! Optimal scenario: Team A plus points (or plus price on the ML); team B plus points (or plus price on the ML). Hit those middles!
5) TRACK YOUR RESULTS: Know which teams you have a good read on and which ones you don’t. Are you winning laying points with bigger favorites? Cashing in w’ live dogs? Accurate tracking helps you know what type of bets you are winning with and which ones not so much. The post-mortem matters and it helps!
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